Two Days Before the Vote: Federal Chaos, State Power Plays, and Charlotte’s $19 Billion Question
As Washington stumbles through a record shutdown and Raleigh redraws congressional maps, Charlotte voters face a transit tax decision that will shape the city for decades
By Jack Beckett
The Charlotte Mercury
CHARLOTTE — On Tuesday, Charlotte voters will decide whether to approve a 1-cent sales tax increase that would generate $19.4 billion over 30 years for transit and roads. Early voting ended yesterday at 3 p.m. In 48 hours, the question will be settled.
It’s the kind of local decision that typically gets made in a vacuum, insulated from the broader political chaos swirling around it.
Except this time, there is no vacuum.
While Mecklenburg County residents weigh whether to trust a 27-member transit authority with nearly $20 billion, the federal government is stumbling through day 34 of a shutdown that has left 40 million Americans wondering if their food assistance will arrive. While Charlotte debates bus routes and commuter rail timelines, North Carolina Republicans are redrawing congressional maps in a bid to flip another U.S. House seat. And while Mayor Vi Lyles campaigns for a fifth term, President Donald Trump is calling on Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster entirely.
The connections matter. Local decisions don’t happen in isolation—they’re shaped by state legislation, federal funding streams, and the broader political environment that determines what’s possible and what isn’t.
Here’s what you need to know about the political landscape heading into Election Day, and why it matters for Charlotte.
Washington: A Government That Can’t Keep Itself Running
The federal government shutdown entered its 34th day this weekend, three days shy of becoming the longest in American history. That record—35 days—was also set during a Trump administration, in 2018-2019.
This time, the consequences are escalating rapidly.
On Friday, November 1, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program was scheduled to suspend benefits for more than 40 million Americans. Two federal judges—one in Rhode Island, one in Massachusetts—ruled the suspension unlawful and ordered the U.S. Department of Agriculture to use emergency contingency funds. But as of Saturday, those payments remained delayed, leaving families in limbo.
The National Nuclear Security Administration, which oversees America’s nuclear weapons stockpile, furloughed roughly 1,400 workers this week—approximately 80 percent of its federal staff. Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged concerns about national security, noting the need to keep adversaries “confident that we have our stuff together.”
Military personnel are receiving paychecks, but through what the Pentagon describes as “a mix of legislative and Pentagon funds”—essentially cobbling together payment from multiple sources to avoid default.
Health insurance premiums under the Affordable Care Act are projected to jump an average of 114 percent due to the expiration of enhanced subsidies that are caught up in the shutdown negotiations. Open enrollment began November 1.
Trump’s Solution: Kill the Filibuster
President Trump’s proposed solution appeared on Truth Social over the weekend: eliminate the Senate filibuster entirely. “Do not be WEAK AND STUPID,” he wrote to Senate Republicans, urging them to pass the Republican funding bill without Democratic support.
The Senate did manage a symbolic vote this week to roll back Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs on Canada, Brazil, and other countries. A slim majority of Republicans joined Democrats in the vote. But because it lacked a veto-proof majority, it’s unlikely to become law.
The shutdown’s political fallout will be tested Tuesday, when voters in Virginia and New Jersey elect governors and Charlotte decides its transit future. Former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris held rallies Saturday for Democratic candidates in those gubernatorial races; Trump’s political operation—led by strategist Susie Wiles—has invested heavily in Republican turnout efforts.
Why Charlotte Should Care
Federal shutdowns have direct local consequences. North Carolina’s Department of Health and Human Services announced this week that November SNAP benefits for 1.4 million North Carolinians will be delayed if the shutdown continues. Mecklenburg County is home to hundreds of thousands of SNAP recipients.
But the deeper issue is what the shutdown signals about the reliability of federal funding streams—the same streams Charlotte is counting on to help finance its ambitious transit plans. The city’s $19.4 billion transit proposal anticipates an additional $5.9 billion in competitive federal grants. Those grants come from the Federal Transit Administration, which has funded only a handful of commuter rail projects since the pandemic.
Federal dysfunction doesn’t just create uncertainty—it creates risk. And risk makes long-term infrastructure planning significantly more complicated.
North Carolina: Redistricting While Rome Burns
While the federal government remains shuttered, North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature spent late October redrawing the state’s congressional map.
The new map, approved by the state House on October 23 in a 66-48 vote, targets the 1st District, currently represented by Democrat Don Davis. Trump won the district in November 2024 even as Davis won reelection by fewer than two percentage points. Under the new boundaries, several counties with significant Black populations would be swapped out for more conservative coastal communities.
Republicans currently hold 10 of North Carolina’s 14 congressional seats. The new map is designed to flip the 1st District and give the GOP an 11-3 advantage.
No Veto, Probable Litigation
State law prevents Governor Josh Stein, a Democrat, from vetoing redistricting legislation. Stein called the move “disgraceful,” but his objections carry no legal weight.
Former Representatives Eva Clayton and G.K. Butterfield—both Black Democrats who represented portions of the 1st District for decades—described the map as “not merely a political act, but a moral regression.” Democratic legislators and civil rights groups have signaled likely litigation, arguing the map dilutes Black voting power in violation of federal law.
Senate leader Phil Berger defended the map by saying it “respects the will of North Carolina voters who sent President Trump to the White House three times.” Trump has been elected president twice.
The Budget That Isn’t
What makes the redistricting push particularly notable is what it preempted: passing a state budget.
North Carolina’s budget is now more than three months overdue. Democratic legislators spent much of the redistricting debate pointing out that the General Assembly was prioritizing partisan advantage over basic governance functions like funding Medicaid and public schools.
Governor Stein has been locked in a standoff with Republican leadership over threatened Medicaid provider reimbursement rate cuts. The dispute remains unresolved, and providers are preparing for potential cuts to take effect if the budget impasse continues.
Meanwhile, a separate drama continues to unfold around a contested State Supreme Court race. Republican Jefferson Griffin is challenging approximately 65,000 votes in his race against Democratic incumbent Allison Riggs. Griffin trails by 734 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast—a margin of 0.013 percent. The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments Monday on whether the challenge belongs in federal or state court. It has been more than 80 days since Election Day.
Charlotte: The $19 Billion Decision
Against this backdrop of federal dysfunction and state-level power plays, Charlotte voters face a decision that will define the city’s transportation infrastructure for a generation.
On Tuesday, all Mecklenburg County voters will be asked to approve a 1-cent sales tax increase, raising the rate from 7.25 percent to 8.25 percent. If approved, the tax would generate an estimated $19.4 billion over 30 years, split 40 percent for rail transit, 40 percent for roads, and 20 percent for bus service and microtransit.
What the Money Would Buy
The centerpiece of the plan is the Red Line commuter rail, a 22-mile line running from Mount Mourne in northern Mecklenburg County through Davidson and Cornelius to Uptown Charlotte. State law requires that 50 percent of the Red Line be completed before any other new rail line can open—a provision designed to prevent Charlotte from repeating its history of starting projects it can’t finish.
The Red Line is estimated to cost $1.38 billion and would take eight to ten years to complete, including environmental review, federal grant applications, design, and construction. The city purchased the “O Line” tracks in September 2024 in anticipation of voter approval.
Other planned rail projects include the Silver Line, an east-west corridor connecting East Charlotte, Uptown, West Charlotte, and Charlotte Douglas International Airport. The plan also calls for extending the streetcar line, though specific routes and timelines remain undefined.
On the bus side, the plan promises to expand microtransit service—an on-demand rideshare system similar to Uber but costing $2.20 per trip—to 100 additional square miles within five years. Frequency on the top 15 bus routes would increase to every 15 minutes; all other routes would run every 30 minutes or better. The plan includes building or upgrading 2,000 bus shelters over ten years.
Road funding would be distributed to Charlotte and the six other Mecklenburg County municipalities according to a formula defined in state legislation. Charlotte has published a “Blueprint For Charlotte Mobility Investment” that lists potential projects but provides no cost estimates or construction timelines.
Who Controls the Money
The sales tax revenue would be managed by a new Metropolitan Public Transportation Authority—a 27-member board operating independently of city, county, and state government.
The composition of that board is politically significant. Twelve members would be appointed by the City of Charlotte, including at least three recommended by the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance and at least one small business owner. Six members would be appointed by county commissioners, including at least one representative from unincorporated areas and one small business owner. Each of the six municipalities in Mecklenburg County would appoint one member. The North Carolina General Assembly would appoint two members, and the governor would appoint one.
Two appointments have already been made: Ned Curran, a local real estate consultant, and David Longo, board chair of the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance. Both were appointed by the General Assembly before voters have even approved the tax.
The Cost to Households
The average Mecklenburg County household would pay an additional $240 per year—$20 per month—according to city estimates. Low-income households would pay approximately $132 annually, or $11 per month. Visitors and non-residents are expected to contribute roughly 30 percent of total tax collections, meaning the burden doesn’t fall entirely on local residents.
Sales tax increases are regressive by nature—they take a larger share of income from lower earners. That reality has split the coalition of progressive voices who typically align on transit issues.
The Political Divide
Governor Stein endorsed the tax on September 30, calling it necessary to accommodate Mecklenburg County’s growth. The Charlotte Regional Business Alliance is leading the “Yes for Meck” campaign with a $3 million fundraising goal. Former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx and the advocacy group Sustain Charlotte have also thrown their support behind the measure.
Opposition comes from multiple directions. Former City Council member Braxton Winston has called the plan “a bait-and-switch of the highest magnitude,” criticizing the campaign spending and questioning whether the projects will deliver as promised. Former Mayor Jennifer Roberts opposes the tax on equity grounds, arguing that hourly workers will pay disproportionately while receiving the least benefit.
Progressive group ActionNC opposes the measure, saying it was crafted without sufficient community input and that it places too much trust in an unelected authority board to spend $19 billion wisely.
The political fight has been expensive. The Business Alliance’s $3 million campaign budget is unprecedented for a local ballot measure in Charlotte, signaling both the stakes involved and the uncertainty about whether voters will approve.
Historical Context
Charlotte’s transit history is relevant here. In 2007, Mecklenburg County voters rejected a measure to repeal the existing half-cent sales tax for transit. During that campaign, Charlotte Area Transit System officials projected that the half-cent tax could fund the streetcar, the Red Line, bus rapid transit along Independence Boulevard, and the Blue Line Extension to University City.
What actually got built: the Blue Line Extension (shorter than planned) and the streetcar (funded through the city’s general fund, not the transit tax). There wasn’t enough money for anything else.
The lesson is that projections are not guarantees. Revenue estimates can fall short. Federal matching grants are competitive and uncertain. Construction costs escalate. Political priorities shift.
Voters are being asked to trust that this time will be different.
The Other Races on Your Ballot
Charlotte’s transit tax referendum is the marquee question, but it’s not the only decision voters will make Tuesday.
Mayor
Vi Lyles is seeking a fifth two-year term as mayor, which would bring her total service to a decade. She faces Republican Terrie Donovan, a real estate agent and political newcomer, and Libertarian Rob Yates, who has run unsuccessfully for mayor and state Senate in previous cycles.
Lyles’ reelection prospects are strong. Charlotte’s voter base is heavily Democratic, and the city has a history of re-electing incumbents. But she faces criticism over two high-profile controversies: the August 22 fatal stabbing on the Blue Line light rail in South End, which drew national attention, including comments from Trump administration officials, and a $305,000 settlement with CMPD Police Chief Johnny Jennings.
Lyles has emphasized the need for continued work on affordable housing, economic opportunity, and transportation. Donovan is running on safety, infrastructure, accountability, and housing. Yates opposes the transit tax referendum and is running on an accountability platform.
City Council
September’s Democratic primary produced two notable upsets. Tiawana Brown, who represents District 3 and was federally indicted earlier this year for an alleged scheme involving COVID relief funds, lost to Joi Mayo. In District 5, incumbent Marjorie Molina lost to Juan Diego Mazuera Arias by just 37 votes—a margin that triggered a recount. Mazuera Arias was declared the winner, and because no Republican filed for the seat, he will serve the next two years.
District 6 will see Krista Bokhari, wife of former councilmember Tariq Bokhari, face Democrat Kimberly Owens. The District 6 seat is one of only two held by Republicans on the 11-member council.
Four at-large seats are also on the ballot. Incumbents Dimple Ajmera, Lawana Slack-Mayfield, James Mitchell, and Victoria Watlington all won their primaries and are expected to win reelection, given Charlotte’s Democratic lean.
For complete coverage of all city council races, see our district-by-district candidate guide.
School Board
Six Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools board seats are contested, with candidates debating whether the district has strayed too far into “social and political agendas” at the expense of core academics. The conservative group Moms for Liberty has backed several candidates. Mecklenburg County Democrats have endorsed others. Former Governor Pat McCrory has weighed in with endorsements as well.
School board races are technically nonpartisan but have become increasingly politicized in recent years. Turnout in these down-ballot races tends to be low, which makes organized endorsements and get-out-the-vote efforts particularly influential.
What Happens Tuesday
Election Day is Tuesday, November 4, from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Registered voters must vote at their assigned polling place. Early voting ended yesterday at 3 p.m.
The transit tax requires a simple majority to pass. If it fails, there is no “Plan B”—city officials have said as much publicly. Charlotte would continue operating under its existing half-cent sales tax, which has proven insufficient to fund major expansion projects. The city would return to the question of how to finance growth in a region adding an average of 157 people per day.
If the tax passes, the new Metropolitan Public Transportation Authority would begin operations as early as October 2026. The Red Line would begin the environmental review and design process, with construction starting within a few years and operations beginning in eight to ten years.
That’s the optimistic scenario. The realistic scenario involves delays, cost overruns, and political fights over project priorities. It’s also possible that federal funding doesn’t materialize at the levels projected, leaving the region with difficult choices about what to scale back.
The Bigger Picture
Charlotte’s transit decision is important because it’s rare: most cities don’t get the chance to vote on a multi-billion dollar infrastructure plan. But it’s also important because of what it reveals about how local decisions get made in an era of federal instability and state-level partisan warfare.
Federal shutdowns create funding uncertainty. State legislatures can rewrite the rules governing local taxation and control. Appointed boards can override elected officials. And voters are left trying to make sense of complicated proposals with incomplete information and competing narratives about risk and reward.
This is how democracy works in 2025: messily, uncertainly, with more questions than answers.
Charlotte voters will make their decision Tuesday. Washington will still be shut down. Raleigh will still be redrawing maps. And somewhere in a conference room, 27 people will be waiting to see if they get to manage $19 billion.
Vote accordingly.
*Jack Beckett is a senior writer for The Charlotte Mercury. He has consumed approximately 847 cups of coffee while covering local politics this year, though he suspects the real number is higher. For deeper dives into how Charlotte’s government actually works, check out our Politics section or our comprehensive 2025 Election coverage—we call it “Poll Dance 2025” because watching local democracy in action requires a sense of humor. You can find our full News coverage including development, zoning fights, and the occasional city council shouting match at cltmercury.com. We publish every week with stories that respect your time and your privacy—no tracking, no surveillance, just journalism. If you’ve got tips, questions, or just want to argue about transit policy, you can always message us on X (formerly Twitter, or as we call it, Twix) at x.com/queencityexp.
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This article, “Two Days Before the Vote: Federal Chaos, State Power Plays, and Charlotte’s $19 Billion Question,” by Jack Beckett is licensed under CC BY-ND 4.0.
“Two Days Before the Vote: Federal Chaos, State Power Plays, and Charlotte’s $19 Billion Question”
by Jack Beckett, The Charlotte Mercury (CC BY-ND 4.0)